Master the art of Betting: Value Betting

Mateo Brekalo
Mateo Brekalo
Published: 18.9.2023.


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In a previous article, we mentioned numerous ways to enhance your betting odds. In this article, we will delve deeper into explaining one of the methods we believe is worth exploring. This approach is legal, and it can significantly improve your chances of success in betting.

What is value betting and its purpose

Identifying an event where, in our opinion, the odds do not accurately reflect the real probability, with the odds in this case implying a lower probability than it actually holds. If you aim for long-term success in sports betting, value betting is one of the most consistent and emotionally relaxed approaches.

Let's compare it to stock or crypto trading. A day trader, who seeks quick moves in the charts and attempts to predict them, will undoubtedly experience greater emotional swings with each change, feeling the possibility of winning or losing a significant amount of money in a short time. That would be similar to all the customers placing their bets in-play or some short events which gives them results as fast as possible. On the other hand, a "HODLER", as they're called in the crypto world, would invest their money and patiently wait for it to grow over a longer period. That is why in my opinion a value bettor is a sports betting "HODLER".

Systematic method of value betting

So we know it will be a long long game which we are trying to win. We need patience, discipline and the most valuable information possible. You have to know your bank, how to find the value bets and set some limits, like daily or weekly limits on the number of bets or stakes. Keep it consistent and wait for the result. The larger the sample is, the more accurate your predictions will be if you are loyal to your value bets.

Let’s explain this. When you place a value bet, you haven't increased someone else's chances of winning; instead, you've enhanced your potential winnings if you successfully predict the outcome. For example, if there's a 50% probability (2.00 odds) that someone will win, and you discover odds of 2.20 for this event, it means that in the event of a successful bet with a stake of 100, you will win 120 instead of just 100.

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This is why you require a larger sample size, and when pursuing value bets, you'll need to place a substantial number of bets throughout the day for the system to be effective. You might think that if there's a 50% probability that a particular team will win, one out of every two will win. However, this principle only applies on a much larger scale and with a very extensive sample of games. That's why placing only a few bets and hoping for the value to pay off can be an even tougher task than it already is.

Do not place parlays, as you don’t want to impact your value with another outside factor.

Finding a value bet

Manual search

There are a couple of ways to identify value in the odds. The oldest method, of course, involves manually examining the offerings to spot a value bet, often relying on the bettor's knowledge to recognize overpriced odds. The more common approach, however, is to compare the odds offered by a local bookmaker with those from reputable sharp bookies like Pinnacle or high-quality Asian bookmakers.

Free service

The second option involves free value and sure bet tools available on the web. These tools are software applications that use algorithms to analyze thousands of potential market outcomes and notify you when a value bet is detected. In the screenshot, you can see an example of one such free software that identified a 5% value opportunity in an under/over football market:

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Paid service

The third and, arguably, the best option, especially in today's betting landscape, is a paid service. In this article, we won't endorse any specific service, but you can easily find them through a simple Google search. As you can see in the previous screenshot, you'll notice the limited nature of the information available for free. With paid services, you can expect to receive more comprehensive details and, undoubtedly, better profit margins:

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Which way is the best?

If you're an experienced value bettor with a lot of experience in identifying value bets, you probably already know when and where to look. You may not require as much assistance from online services. However, if your bankroll is substantial, and you've earned significant profits in the past, we would still recommend considering one of the reputable subscription services for added support.

Personally, my favorite strategy was to focus on NBA basketball, where I recognized that certain European bookmakers would release their spread lines ahead of the US bookies. Consequently, there were often slight discrepancies in over/under lines and spreads compared to the US market. To capitalize on this opportunity, I needed to act swiftly and monitor the European market closely, waiting for the US market to open their prices and then comparing the differences. There was almost no need for any service assistance as I already knew where and when it would occur.

If you are serious about value betting, we strongly recommend subscribing to one of the paid services, as they offer extensive game coverage, the largest overall database, and rapid updates. These factors are crucial when pursuing value bets. It's important to note that millions of people are engaged in betting and constantly seeking better odds. Thus, the faster you react, the greater the likelihood that you will secure favorable odds before market fluctuations push prices in the opposite direction.

Using free services will be fun for someone completely new in the space, but the info that they will provide will be very limited, and very delayed, and mostly they will lead to a bookie’s website where the odds were already corrected, before you even got the chance to place a bet.

Track your bets

Track all your bets from day one. It will be highly informative to determine which bets have been most successful for you in the past, helping you enhance the overall quality of your portfolio.

For some reason, I consistently had unfavorable statistics when dealing with lower odds and a high probability of winning (70%+). Consequently, I found the optimal range to be within a 40-60% probability, which led me to concentrate more on bets falling within this range. It is just a tip to have more fun and why not use the stats in your favor.


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