Master the Art of Betting: Boost Your Winning Chances

Mateo Brekalo
Mateo Brekalo
Published: 15.9.2023.

Master the Art of Betting: Boost Your Winning Chances

Do you ever wonder if it's possible to outsmart a bookmaker these days? Questions like 'How can you beat the bookie?' are all too common for someone working in the industry. However, the most annoying question I've received in the past 15 years is, 'Can you give me some good tips to make money?'

The answer to the first question is both yes and no. You can certainly increase your chances of success by being smarter with your stake, choice of bets, choice of system, timing, research, and many other factors. However, it's important to note that today, the margins for error on the bookmakers' side are extremely small.

There are many ways you can improve your chances of winning a bet, and we will mention and discuss some of them:

1. Value betting
2. In-Play betting
3. Gaining valuable information
4. Odds comparison
5. Cashout
6. Specialize
7. Avoid parlays
8. Use Bonus Systems
9. Limit your stakes
10. Arbitrage or sure betting

There are certainly many other methods, some of which we also strongly discourage. These include exploiting obvious system errors or even going as far as mentioning even match fixing.

Real Life Case

Personally, I am aware of a significant case involving the exploitation of trading errors which led to big value bets for the customer who placed bets on motorsports, particularly Formula 1.

This instance of exploiting poorly placed odds in Formula 1 bets was the result of multiple errors made by the bookmakers, combined with value betting and the acquisition of highly significant information.

You might be wondering how such mistakes are even possible, but they can actually occur quite easily in sports like Formula 1, where the market is not as vast as you might think. Imagine, then, 15 years ago when online sports betting was not as widespread as it is today. The number of bets has seen a dramatic increase, particularly in the past 5 years. The figures we have from the legal US market show that in 2018, the total legal revenue was 4 billion dollars, compared to 2022 when it reached a staggering 93 billion dollars.

One more factor to consider was that trading teams were manually setting a significant portion of the offers, making human error a significant factor. In recent years, many companies have been focused on developing the best AI systems to detect and rectify errors, while also striving to compose the entire offer with minimal margin for error.

What is the connection between the market size and potential errors?

Bookmakers utilize various alerting tools that reveal odds discrepancies in the market, value bets, or even significant mistakes. For a software system to detect such anomalies, there must be a basis for comparison. When the market revenue is small or virtually nonexistent, many reference bookmakers may not be available for comparison. However, some bookies may still offer markets and odds for specific games or bets. If their estimations or models are slightly off, errors can easily occur.

Obvious mistakes

As we mentioned earlier, this scenario is a result of an incorrectly estimated probability, the customer's strong knowledge of the sport they are betting on, and the identification of a value bet. In this specific case, there was not something we call an obvious mistake. An obvious mistake would occur if the odds were completely reversed. For example, if Real Madrid was playing against a C Division team in the Spanish Cup, and the bookmaker opened the odds with the C Division team as the heavy favorite of the match, offering a price of 12 for Real Madrid to win instead of 1.10. In such a scenario, many bookmakers, including even the most reputable ones, would simply cancel your bets, as they typically cover such situations in their terms and conditions. Therefore, please make sure to read the terms and conditions (T&C's).

Perfect combination of value, information and knowledge

The Formula 1 case I'm aware of involved a combination of all these factors, but it wasn't something the bookmaker could easily label as an obvious error. When a customer possesses knowledge about a specific sport and takes odds of 12 instead of 5.0, it presents a significant advantage. If the customer assesses that there's a 20% chance the team will win, then the price of 12 offered by the bookie represents a substantial discount for them. This doesn't guarantee the bet will win, but they have indeed secured a considerable discount. Furthermore, if the price later drops and corrects to 5.0, the customer could even sell (Cashout) the difference before the event even starts. When specializing in a particular sport, team, or event, it's crucial to avoid introducing other factors that can disrupt your system. Therefore, it's often better to place such bets as singles rather than including them in parlays.

This particular customer was restricted by numerous bookmakers, with his stakes being reduced to the minimum or, in some cases, he was entirely banned from betting. However, prior to these limitations, he successfully won a substantial amount from multiple bookmakers.

Elements used In this case

The customer detected a value in the odds of 12 instead of being around 5.0. There are multiple ways to detect a value bet, one of which is simply comparing the odds with your reference bookmaker. The reference bookmaker is typically one known for having a significant turnover, accurate data, and a track record of predicting odds more effectively and efficiently than the competition. If your knowledge of the sport or event you are betting on is extensive, as was the case with this customer, or if you possess highly valuable information, you may not even need to compare the odds, as you could identify the value within the average market odds. Nevertheless, it's still advisable to make comparisons in order to secure the most profitable or higher odds available in the market. The customer in this case minimized the potential impact of other factors on his bets by consistently placing single bets where he identified value. By adding more games to the parlay, he would increase the likelihood of other factors influencing the final outcome.



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