Strategies and Insights: Maximizing Betting Success with Dropping Odds

Dropping odds is a widely used term in sports betting. It is not uncommon for pre-match odds to decrease on one side of the market and increase on the other. I will explain what this means and how you can use it as a betting strategy.

What does the drop mean?

There are many reasons why the odds may drop, but at the end of the day, the primary factor is the distribution of money or the consensus opinion of the majority.

Various types of odds are present in sports betting. Initially, fast-dropping odds refer to a rapid decline in odds due to increased bettor activity. Additionally, both teams to score dropping odds occur when bettors place wagers on both teams scoring in a match, causing the odds to fall before the game starts.

Typically, odds decrease when pre-match events unfold, potentially influencing the game's outcome.

If Real Madrid is playing against Barcelona and just before the match, information emerges that the three key Barcelona players are unable to participate due to injuries, the public will become aware of this development and begin to place more bets on Real Madrid. This is when the odds start to drop.

Is it the same as a value bet?

Every dropping odds strategy could easily be considered a value bet as well. It is similar in that you are using information to assess the value of the odds you are acquiring. The most effective approach is to utilize dropping odds services that highlight the most significant drops in the market. For example, you may observe a situation where the odds were initially 2.2 but, on average, dropped to 1.70 for Rosenborg II to win.

That would indicate that something happened in the lineups or that the public knew something more than the bookmakers themselves, prompting them to lower the odds. If you enter the game and compare with other competitors, you can observe that some bookies are still slow to adjust their odds, and you may still find odds well above 2.00.

That would essentially mean you would have a significant value bet if you manage to place a bet at that price.

Just be aware that services like we showed here will have delays in updates and paid services will give you more accurate odds in a given moment.

Drop at local bookies

One of the most underrated ways to utilize dropping odds is to identify local bookmakers, check their odds, and look for fluctuations in their offerings. For instance, if you closely follow the Swedish Eishockey league and are aware of the specific local bookmakers in Sweden covering the league, you can capitalize on their unique position. Local bookies are often the quickest to adjust odds based on quality information or the actions of local bettors. If local bettors place substantial bets on a particular outcome and you observe a drop in the odds, you can leverage this information by placing bets with larger bookmakers that may not have received this information yet or may never acquire it. Many local bookies may not even be accessible through paid services, so your knowledge about local bookmakers from specific countries can be crucial in gaining a competitive advantage.

Dropping tendency

You might not always find a value bet or an "incorrectly set" odd when searching for an odds drop, but you might still discover value in placing a bet on a team where there is a consistent trend of dropping odds for that outcome. Very often, when following dropping odds services, I didn't pay much attention to the current value of the price. Instead, my focus was on whether the market displayed a tendency of decreasing a price. When a substantial majority indicates that one outcome is dropping, it's advisable to investigate the reasons behind the odds movement. If the information you gather aligns with the market sentiment, you might consider placing a bet on the decreasing side. However, don't completely disregard the concept of value, and be sure to choose the highest available price on the market when making your decision.

Cash Out the drop

Sometimes, you will be fortunate or knowledgeable enough to anticipate a future drop. For example, if you place a bet at odds of 2.2, and the odds subsequently drop to 1.8, you might choose to wait, secure a better position, and maintain it until the end of the match, thereby increasing your chances of winning the bet. Alternatively, even before the match begins, you can capitalize on the price difference and opt for a cashout, ensuring a guaranteed profit. Personally, I wouldn't use this strategy almost never, as I would prefer to keep my potential maximum winnings in play. Very often, you will have a better opportunity after the match starts, as the dropping price before the start tends to continue dropping just before and during the opening of the match.

Find value on the opposite side

If you are someone who believes in betting against the public, you might consider placing a bet on the opposite side, essentially on the rising odds.

If you observe the example we mentioned earlier, where the tendency is for prices to drop on the home team, considering our articles on margins and fair/unfair odds, you'll recognize that there is considerably less margin added on the underdogs. Consequently, you can obtain fairer odds on higher odds, as favorites often have more bookmakers' margin added to their value. In this case, it wouldn't be a bad idea to attempt placing a bet at the current 7.55 price offered by GGbet.

No winning guarantee

Like value bets, betting on dropping odds will give you no guarantee that you will win the bet. But strategically placing your bets and gathering all the information can give you a fair advantage and increase your chances of winning. Manage your stake and bankroll. Never bet more than you can afford and stay consistent. Those are the principles of having a successful betting history and more fun during the betting.