Value Betting

26.6.2019.   11:37

What is Value Betting?

There is a lot of misunderstanding over some principles, approaches and definitions in sports betting, however, Value Betting is something that can easily be defined and something that can be easily understood by all bettors regardless of their experience. Bookmakers usually have big teams, machine learning software and huge experience in the sports betting world. All of these advantages make them price the odds pretty accurately and win money in the long run against most customers.

However, there are still some blind spots that are not so easily covered and where we can take advantage of them. Despite having many resources at their hands, Sportsbooks are slow to react when a piece of certain new information enters the market. This can happen in cases such as when a manager decides to rotate the team or when a key player has been injured or when couple o doubtful players are cleared for the game etc. When situations like this enter the market, customers place the bets and take overpriced odds. For example, the home team was priced correctly at odds 2.00 to win but opposition key player was unexpectedly injured. This can increase home team winning chances, thus making correct odds for home win 1.85. If we are fast to react when this kind of information enters the market and place a bet on overpriced odds before bookmakers have reacted, then we have caught value bet.

Sometimes though, the opposite can happen. Same information enters the market, we see a huge money movement on a home win with many people backing them even after the odds have gone lower then correctly priced 1.85.  This is an often occurrence in nowadays sports betting. Many bloggers, tipsters and groups cannot determine what are correct odds and overreact in advising their followers to take the bet, even when the value has been long gone. Individuals that get access to new information see the odds going down and quickly, without too much thought, start putting money on home win regardless of the odds. This can react to odds on home win going down to 1.50. In such cases, despite key man missing for away team, we will have value on away side. Placing a bet on x2 at odds at around 2.50 would be a wise decision and would leave us in so much desired value land. 

It is good to follow public information and place bets until there is value in the odds, however, we must avoid placing such a bet when the value is gone and odds are correctly priced. Some professionals even take advantage of this kind of situations and place a bet on the opposite side where odds become unrealistically high due public placing bets on one side only. 

How to find and place value bets?

Best bookmakers in the world are those that also have the highest limits. They can afford to have huge limits due to the way their systems are set. Biggest bookmakers operate on systems that use algorithms that are market-driven, meaning that every customer placing a bet is also moving the market in one way or the other. The extent of the odds movement and influence each user has is determined by how big the league is (limit size) and how big bet (bet size) customer places. In the end, the general public and amount of money placed determine the movement of the odds and closing lines. We would always recommend using sports betting brokers that combine limits from a couple of biggest bookmakers. One of them is Sport Market.

Bookmakers just need to balance the amount of money that comes in on all outcomes, which leaves them with a smaller risk as possible. This also means that bettors move the odds and do the work for bookmakers. As it was explained in the first part of the article, sometimes the mass betting community can be mistaken and make a false conclusion based on information. Also sometimes the general public is slow to learn information and slow to move the odds, leaving us with a hefty value odds to be taken. Each situation can be different and to make the best decision one would usually take a lot of experience in similar situations. 

A lot of public uses services that do this job for them. The most important factor when choosing professional betting services is a history of closing odds, available limits and proven track record.

You can read more about it on our article 5 Reason To Subscribe To Selected Picks.  This may sound easy but is extremely important if you want to be profitable in sports betting. You should want to find a profitable betting service that can provide winners in the long run with a history of proven record. However, even most important then this is that picks are placed on high limit markets. If a service is sending pick at odds 2.00 for 500€ market then be sure that first to react will only get 2.00 odds, each next bet will automatically lower the odds, as explained earlier. By constantly missing out on sent odds and getting 1.70, 1.82, 1.60 on such bets you will be losing money although the same service will be recording profitable months. 

Of course, it is impossible to always get the sent odds, especially if the service is profitable and popular. However, you always want to take the closest odds possible. There are a couple of strategies here. For example, you can place the bets on other, slower bookmakers, sometimes even with higher odds than those suggested by betting service. One more important factor is to get odds and at the same time as everyone else. That is why Delivery Methods are important as we have written in past. 

Value betting as an investment alternative.

The end goal of betting is earning money. A lot of investors look at (value)betting as a form of investment that could give them a good return on investment(ROI). Not every match can be a winner, but what we can influence is taking expected value in every bet. As long as we keep taking value bet by bet, we must not fear the results. They will come since we have mathematics on our side. There can be very good periods and very poor periods, but in the long run, it will even out because numbers are on our side.

That is why Value Betting is one of the best investment alternatives. It gives a much higher return on investment than saving, stocks, bonds, rental properties etc.

If an investor should understand and follow everything previously explained then he should be on a good way to getting a decent ROI. Finding such services is hard these days so if you have some services that comply with the above written 'rules', be sure to recommend them to us. We are always on the lookout for good investment opportunities. If you do not have such a service, take the first step towards being profitable in betting: register and subscribe to SELECTED PICKS by InsideSport. Verified, high limits football service that has been running from 09/2017. 


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