Ukraine - England


International
Under / Over
Pick: Ukraine Under 0.5
Odds: 1.781
Stake: 1
Pinnacle

Match date: 03/07/2021

EURO 2020 - quarterfinals 


Ukraine and England will face each other in the last of the four QF matches. 

The venue is Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy. 


England has topped its group during the first stage and thus got the reward to play against Germany in R16. There was talk if that was smart decision to aim first position but given how Germany looked on this tournament, yes, probably England wasn't fearing at all to face them. Especially first position in the group stage turned out to be great when we see possible English path to the finals. Namely now they need to face in my opinion modest Ukraine while in possible semifinals it's going to be better from the match between Czech Republic and Denmark. So definitely great draw for The Three Lions. 


How England has played so far? Well, as I mentioned once, it seems to me they have played exactly how much they needed. There was no rush or panic when the result still wasn't in their favor, while always keeping the calm and playing smart after scoring. And they looked pretty same against some weaker opponent or against Germany the last time. That is the quality of great teams.

I know they were pissing off the rookie bettors who like by default always go with the favourites. Namely England didn't cover the handicap not even once in the group stage, two 1:0 victories and once scoreless draw. The only time they have scored twice was when their backers didn't need them to, in R16 vs Germany. Fortunately, there is euro handicap option, so who was reading my previews for English games could make nice profit by betting them to win by exactly one goal margin and avoiding betting them at all vs Scotland.


As for Ukraine, they are the team to whom I don't trust at all. They had only three points during the group stage and that was victory over North Macedonia who realistically was the weakest team on this tournament. The moment when I realized Ukraine is too weak, was when I was watching their final game of the group stage against Austria. Match where the draw leads both teams to R16 but Ukraine losses such game in one terrible performance. Such games almost always ends in a draw, even when it wasn't agreed. But Ukraine was so bad on that day that the only surprise was how Austria didn't score couple more. 

And believe me, R16 success against Sweden didn't change my opinion about Ukraine. It was the game that could go either way and the odds also were like that, practically pk game. At the end Ukraine has scored the winning goal in 120th minute and thus managed to avoid penalty drama. But it should be mentioned that Andriy Shevchenko's team was with player more on the pitch for more than a twenty minutes due to red card for Sweden. And it wasn't exactly visible that Ukraine is in such huge advantage.  


So basically when the side is in question, my bet could be only England but it's only small doubt what to chose. Of course I won't go with handicap win for England cause in games like this, there is always better chance to we see only minimal victory for the favourite if they win at all. I'm yet to think about Euro handicap, I yet need to figure it out if here bet on England to win by one goal margin is worth risking.  


In any case, I have something much better this time and that's in connection with Ukrainian team and in connection with expected Ukrainian tactic in this match. No doubt they will go out very defensively and will try to hold on as much as possible. As for their attack, I really doubt Ukraine could be too dangerous for English defense who kept all four clean sheets on this tournament. The streak without conceding goal for England is even longer if we count also few friendly games before EURO.  

Ukraine was able to score those two quick goals against Netherlands when from 2:0 tied on 2:2 before conceding again. But that was Netherlands, no way we should put them even close in the same level with England. 

Even more reasons not to expect Ukraine to score here, is everything what was going on on the above mentioned R16 game against Sweden. Namely the Sweden was too rough, some ridiculous fouls, elbows etc. They looked more like some butcher team and that red card was completely deserved. Maybe there could be more than one. In any case, that red card was due to horror tackle on Ukrainian striker Artem Besedin who had to leave the game after it and now of course is not available. As said, reason more not to trust Ukraine to score. 


As for English team, Henderson who entered from the bench last time, could be in the starting eleven now. Other than that the main question is if Southgate finally could give the trust to Jack Grealish to be in starting line-up. If you ask me, 

probably not. England in any case is with outstanding players upfront and not much difference who is playing, they should score. Who knows, maybe now for the first time they even cover handicap against underdog opponent cause from the defense I expect to again keep the clean sheet.  


Maybe not too much important but I will mention also that referee is Felix Brych from Germany. It's the guy who very often is not hiding his love for the big teams. That being said, maybe this is another fact that is not going in Ukrainian favor.  


My best bet for this game definitely is England to win to nil. The odds are great while on this way we are avoiding dilemma about how many goals could England score here and if they could cover. Only one, two or even more goals, I wouldn't care as long as they don't concede any. 

Still, I'm not sure if option 'win to nil' is allowed, the rules do not say precisely, so I'll use the option which surely is on the allowed list. It's Totals and it's Ukraine Team Totals Under 0.5. 

The odds are of course lower this way but you can choose win to nil in your bookie. Pinnacle pays it 2.06 for England win to nil.

But who knows, maybe 1.781 from my pick is better. After all it covers also 0:0. 


For the end, I must point out only one fact which I don't like. And that's a fact about England for the first time playing outside home soil, for the first time outside of the Wembley stadium. We remember how for example Italy or Netherlands looked much weaker in R16 in their first game without home field advantage.  

But still will trust to England to keep the clean sheet against in my opinion the weakest team among those who reached QF.  

"
TIP RESULTING
WIN Score: 0:4 Profit: +0.78
Win
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Comments

  • 1
    Bullet 04/07/2021 14:45:44
    This is not an attack on Maradona, just a question to Admin.
    Is it allowed tiping u/o by team.

    Changes in Rules and Tipsters


    European Handicap is removed. Only bets that will be evaluated and accepted are those available in the drop-down menu: 1X2, Asian Handicap, double chance, DNB, over/under. All betting markets are for full time only. This means no more playing draws at halftime, o/u at HT, both to score etc. Also, I am very happy to be removing European Handicap due to reasons that semi-pros and pros will understand

  • 2
    InsideSport 04/07/2021 18:09:24
    No, it is not. This bet will stand, future ones will be voided.
  • 3
    Shuaib Yunus Hassan 04/07/2021 18:57:45
    How about tipping a team to lead at the break. Moneyline on Half time?
  • 4
    Shuaib Yunus Hassan 04/07/2021 19:00:33
    Another question I had on my mind is for example, One sees odds of 2.2 at 14:30, He goes on to tip and write the preview and the preview is posted at 14:37, but odds at 14:33 drop from 2.2 to 2.0, so will the tip be voided because the person put odds of 2.2?
  • 5
    InsideSport 04/07/2021 19:15:27
    Full time only bets, Shauib read the newsletter.

    Odds are monitored and corrected when needed.

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