Udinese - Atalanta


Italy
Under / Over
Pick: Over 2.5
Odds: 1.71
Stake: 1
Pinnacle

Match date: 20/01/2021
Limit on Pinnacle is already good enough (+2.000€) to place solid bet here. In my opinion correct line for these odds is 2.75. I see excellent value in over 2.5.

Both teams without any new absences. Probably the same 11s like in last round.

In 7 of last 11 matches between both teams we saw at least 3 goals. In previous season both matches were crazy - Atalanta trashed Udinese at home 7:1 and get 3 points on away after very hard match finished with 5 goals (3:2).

For me is very simple choice - Udinese have very poor defense, no doubt about that. They conceded at least one goal in 14 of 17 Serie A matches so far. Now they even have worse streak as they conceded at least 2 goals in last 5 matches in a row. Of course, there are positive things - their offensive power looks good. They scored 6 goals in last 4 matches, in all these matches xGS number was +1.78. They may be very dangerous today as well. I saw last Udine match against Sampdoria and I saw the same problems. Udine looked very good upfront (xGS 2.57), but they looked unstable in defense and conceded 2 silly goals.

Atalanta have amazing offensive power, one of the best in Europe. Already 40 goals in 17 matches, at good day they are able to break today's line - they scored more than 2 goals in 4 of last 5 matches. In last round they failed to score against Genoa at home, but that shouldn't happen (xGS 2.03). Atalanta as well is not hard to break in defense - they conceded at least one goal in 13 of 17 matches so far.
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TIP RESULTING
LOST Score: 1:1 Profit: -1
Lost
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