Sochi - Partizan

UEFA Conference League
1X2 / Moneyline
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.5
Stake: 1

Match date: 05/08/2021

Europa Conference League - 3rd qualifying round, Leg 1

Sochi from Russia is hosting Serbian team Partizan Belgrade. 

Venue: Fisht Olympic Stadium, Sochi.

Interesting odds movement for this game. From initial offer (2.25 - 3.14 - 2.76) where Sochi was slight favourite, now we have the reversed situation, now Partizan is the similar slight favourite. Current odds: 2.85 - 2.95 - 2.58 (both taken from Pinnacle).

I have considered initial odds as decent value on Partizan although had no intention to bet on Partizan. Now when odds are reversed, I'm surely not interested either.  

But the main question here is from where this odds move came from? Is it legit? Looking these two squads, probably we have like 50-50 situation with note Partizan is way more experienced when this level is in question. Namely unlike Partizan who is almost regular participant of the group stages in the UEFA competitions, for Sochi this season is a European debut. Plus they are relatively new team even in the Russian top flight since the current season is their only third in the Russian Premier League.  

There are rumors Sochi the same as many other clubs from the top European leagues, is not too much interested in this Conference League, but I just can't agree with it. First of all, Sochi is not some too much rich club, by the roster worth they are in the same level with Partizan (around 30 millions) so even those 3M euros only for entering the group stage, is not a negligible amount for them. Plus as mentioned this season is European debut for Sochi, so they probably wants to prove themselves. 

So, I don't fall too much on the allegedly Sochi's less focus on the Conference League. 

But some other facts maybe with valid reason afected on the bettors to trust Partizan here. Firstly, the local authorities have decided to ban the presence of the fans on this game cause the local situation with Covid 19 is going bad again. So, this great big stadium but completely empty for today's match, that surely is not going in favor of the host. 

Also, Partizan had more time to prepare for this clash. The visitors had easy home game in the national league plus played it earlier than Sochi who in the Russian Premier League had tough visit to Akhmat Grozny (1:2 road victory) and played it on Monday. So Sochi had only two days between and if we know Tuesday was a recovering day, then practically the host had only one day (yesterday) to prepare for the Conference League.  

Still, all these in my opinion is not enough to pull the trigger here with bet on Partizan. The Serbian team had pretty easy two games clash with Slovakian team in the previous round, but this should be way more serious opponent.

It's worth to mention Partizan is with very bad tradition against Russian teams. This is 4th time they got Russians on the draw and weren't successful in any of the previous three occasion (2 draws and 4 losses) but obviously Spartak, CSKA and Rubin all were much higher rated teams in that time then Sochi is now.  

Partizan has arrived to Russia without few players but in my opinion nothing too much important. Defenders Obradovic and Miljkovic are both injured. The first one wasn't in any case the top candidate for the starting line-up while Miljkovic is a starter when being healthy but if you ask me, exactly him is the weakest link of this team. So his absence is in fact + for Partizan. Other than this, young Jovic is unavailable. Again good absence in my opinion. This kid is very talented but with too much respect from the coach Stanojevic given how many great chances Jovic is failing to convert into goals.  

Experienced goalkeeper Vladimir Stojkovic has left Partizan after the first leg of the previous round but we can't call this a handicap cause young Popovic is with many games played since there was rotation between him and Stojkovic. So there should be no problems there, after all Popovic was very solid against Dunajska Streda when saved the penalty in the Leg 2. 

The same as Partizan, Sochi also has changed the striker compared with last season when they made huge success in the Russian Premier League. But Partizan's Ricardo is not a typical new face cause he was member of Partizan also some three to four years ago and thus had easy time to adopt and right away started with great games.  

Expected lineups:

SOCHI (3-4-3): Zablotni - Prokin, Rodrigao, Barać - Margasov, Noboa, Calagov, Terekov - Burmistrov, Vorobjev, Dugandžić.

PARTIZAN (4-2-3-1): Popović - Živković, Vujačić, Saničanin, Urošević - Šćekić, Zdjelar - Marković, Natho, Pantić - Rikardo.

The bottom line, maybe the bettors who moved this line are correct and this could be first victory for Partizan against one Russian club. But I can't trust to Partizan on these odds in away game against member of one high quality league. In the same time, I don't see Partizan losing this first leg. The conclusion is obvious, take the Draw. These bet365 odds definitely are way above current average in top bookies. 

WIN Score: 1:1 Profit: +2.5
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  • 1
    Iron Wolf 05/08/2021 20:51:58
    Bravo majstore,nacrtao si mec to volim kad vidim
  • 2
    InsideSport 05/08/2021 21:23:52
    Iron Wolf: Bravo majstore,nacrtao si mec to volim kad vidim

    Only english please!
  • 3
    Jugoslav 05/08/2021 23:44:06
    perfect job on reading the game Diegito,
  • 4
    Iron Wolf 06/08/2021 17:17:53
    Iron Wolf: Bravo majstore,nacrtao si mec to volim kad vidim

    Only english please!

    No problem,sorry.

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