Partizan - Crvena zvezda


Serbia
1X2 / Moneyline
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.02
Stake: 1
SBO

Match date: 19/09/2021

Serbia - Super Liga, R9 


The greatest game in Serbia but also probably the greatest one in the region. Partizan is hosting Crvena zvezda, the so called Eternal derby.  

Zvezda was winning the title in the most recent years but wasn't dominant in the mutual meetings in the same period. The H2H was more or less 50-50 during those years, maybe even slight advantage on Partizan side. But if we add Cup games during the same period, then it's clear advantage for Partzan. Overall Crvena zvezda has won only four times in last 20+ mutual meetings. Here on Partizan stadium they are winless for last five and a half years.  

But still, Draw trend overall was clearly visible when best Serbian teams play each other. Looking only games in the league over past five years, 14 games, 3 wins each and even 8 draws. So 8 of 14 is not bad you would agree. That's a profit also on even odds not to talk how much was profitable with odds of 3.00+. 

Even if we put recent tradition aside, this today's match is still with written Draw all over it.

Partizan was better team in the season so far by winning all of seven games and conceding only two goals. Note, 5/7 were road games so this makes 7-0-0 record even more impressive.  

Crvena zvezda was good too. They dropped two points but defensively were ok, only three conceded goals so far.  

Offensively clear edge for Partizan. Better players upfront while Ricardo Gomes is by far best striker in the league. In numbers this looks like this: Partizan averaging 3.57 scored goals per game, Zvezda only 1.85. But of course when mutual game arrives, then both teams usually first of all are thinking about how to save their own goal. Especially now I think this will be the case when both teams have concerns upfront and when both are coming from midweek European games that were successful. 


Partizan was away on Cyprus where in routine manner won 3 pts against Anorthosis. The first goal was scored by new signing, Menig while the second goal has scored who else than Ricardo. So Ricardo again has found the back of the net but he left the game later due to injury. I doubt it's something seriously and he should play but it's worth to mention he might not be at full 100%. 


Crvena zvezda was fortunate to open the Europa League group stage with 2:1 home win over Portuguese Braga. Just small note, back then I had Under 2.5 bet and everything was pointing out that's going to end as a winner. Scoreless draw on only 15 minutes left but then goal each for just one minute and finally completely unnecessary penalty made by Braga's player in harmless situation in the box and on five minutes left on the clock. 

Zvezda didn't convince me offensively back then. They were without Top striker option, Pavkov and that also was one of the reasons why I went with Under bet. Allegedly he could play today but honestly I doubt he will start. More bad news for Zvezda offensively is that Ben got injured against Braga and he is out for today. This summer signings Lois Diony as well Richairo Živković both seems like not too much trustworthy while coach Dejan Stankovic will need to give the chance to one of them or to both.  


Overall I think this will be mostly defensively oriented game from both sides and I wouldn't be surprised even with scoreless draw while the most realistic outcome is 1:1 draw.  

We already had chance to see this derby in scenario like this when both teams are just coming from the midweek European games. And exactly those derby games after the European matches were the worst, with only few goal chances if any.  

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TIP RESULTING
WIN Score: 1:1 Profit: +2.02
Win
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