Newcastle - Aston Villa

Under / Over
Pick: Under 2.5
Odds: 1.68
Stake: 1

Match date: 12/03/2021

First impression about this match is that it will be very tight game and a low scoring one. Both teams struggling to find the back of the net lately. Newcastle has found the net only 8 times in last 10 matches while Villa has done even worse with just 7 goals in last 10 matches.

My bet here is not just based on statistics, but on the current form of both teams and the circumstances of this match.

Newcastle now should begin to worry about their survival in Premier League. With Fulham being in great form, Newcastle now sits just one point above the relegation zone and every point is crucial for them.

Villa on the other hand stands in comfortable position in the middle of the table. In first months of the season they were doing great and in some moments were dreaming about European places in the table, but as the season goes on they are staying in the middle, so no big worries for them and can take every match in good mood without worries.

For tonight I back my bet also with the important missings that both teams have in the attacking positions. Newcastle will suffer most from those missings because they will miss their best scorer Callum Wilson. Except from Wilson they will miss also Allan Saint-Maximine who got injured again and Miguel Almiron. Very important players in their attacking manoeuvre. Villa on the other hand will miss their best player Grealish.

So to sum up, I expect a tight game where Newcastle will try to win it, but without Wilson, Saint-Maximine and Almiron will be too hard to score against a great Villa’s defense. While Villa could wait comfortably to punish the hosts, so I don’t expect Newcastle to rush out and even Villa to put too much pression. With both teams struggling lately to find the net and with the missing players in attack a low scoring game is expected. The odds aren't great, but I believe they are fair. 

WIN Score: 1:1 Profit: +0.68
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