Milan vs Atalanta

Under / Over
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.41
Stake: 1

Match date: 23/01/2021
I expect a low scoring match at San Siro. It seems like a non-reasonable bet, Atalanta are well known as a team that played high-scoring matches. But let's see my reasons. There are five:

1. Milan are in good form at the moment. They have five victories on the last six matches in the league. The last two victories came against Torino and Cagliari. Both matches were low scoring and ended with Under 2. 5 goals. Even more, one of the two goals was scored from the penalties. So, just one goal came from open play. In addition, Milan kept the net untouched on both games.

2. Milan coach Stefano Pioli has some injury and suspension worries. Key midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu was tested positive for COVID-19 and now must spent two weeks in quarantine. His absence is a big handicap. That's not all as Alessio Romagnoli is suspended, while Ismael Bennacer is sidelined with a thigh injury.

3. Atalanta are unbeaten on the last 9 matches. The atmosphere in the squad is excellent, but something else is important to be mentioned - the last two matches were low scoring. Atalanta played 0:0 with Genoa in Bergamo and played 1:1 with Udinese at Friuli. As You could see, La Dea have scored just one goal in the last two matches. It is clear something isn't working in the attack. Maybe the absence of Papu Gomez is a problem, he was the main creative in the team. Of course, he won't play anymore for Atalanta after the incident with the coach.

4. The last mutual game played at San Siro ended with a low scoring result. On July 24th, Milan and Atalanta played 1:1 draw.

5. I think the last reason is very important - the busy schedule. It is clear the players are very tired. Both teams have played lot of matches in 2021. "
LOST Score: 0:3 Profit: -1
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