Mexico - Honduras

Under / Over
Pick: Under 2.5
Odds: 1.9
Stake: 1

Match date: 25/07/2021

North & Central America - Gold Cup, USA quarterfinals 

Mexico will meet Honduras for a place into semifinals. Mexican team has arrived to USA as a top favourite to lift the trophy. The initial odds were 2.20. Now after the group stage is finished, Mexico is prized at 2.50 but still the first favourite. 

Mexico has opened the competition with scoreless draw against Trinidad & Tobago but then followed two victories, 3:0 over Guatemala and 1:0 over El Salvador. 

I like this team very much when these types of bets are in question. Pretty much similar like Argentina on Copa America or England on EURO, Mexico plays on this North & Central America level. I mean, similar like the mentioned teams, Mexico is too very strong defensively, it's difficult to score against them while upfront Mexico knows to be patient and to wait for its chance. Also, when they score, the Mexicans tends to control everything, they simply knows to play in routine manner. All this is something I'm looking for when betting Under.  

Honduras was the runner up in one of the groups. They have defeated the worst team of this tournament, Grenada (4:0) and Panama with 3:2 before losing 2:0 to much more serious opponent in face of Qatar.  

I expect here similar game like that one against Qatar, meaning, Honduras will heavily focus on defense but eventually will concede goal or two. On the other side I don't see them being dangerous for Mexican defense. They were without single shot on target against Qatar and now need to face for level up more difficult opponent.  

Raul Jimenez is out for Mexico. He was an MVP of this competition on the last edition (2019) when Mexico has won the trophy. Maybe this is also one of reasons why Mexico is not too sharp right now when offense is in question. They have goal chances but are missing. This surely is going in favor of Under bet.  

So I see good chances here for cashing on Under 2.5 especially with Mexican perfect defense which didn't concede here and also kept the clean sheet on the last six games overall.  

One of those games was exactly against Honduras. Namely in a friendly meeting before this tournament we saw scoreless draw between these two. 

I'm going with Under 2.5 and expecting final score 1:0 or 2:0. Alternative option is Mexico to win to nil and that bet pays with plus odds.  

LOST Score: 3:0 Profit: -1
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