Italy -England

1X2 / Moneyline
Pick: Draw
Odds: 2.97
Stake: 1

Match date: 11/07/2021

Euro 2020 - Final match 

Venue : Wembley stadium in London, England

The odds for the finals in my opinion are set pretty much correctly so hardly we could call any side as strong value. 

England is just small favourite as from my point of view they should be, if nothing else then due to small home field advantage. 

In my opinion this finals could be another game on this tournament that will finish in draw. This option was extremely profitable, at least in the knockout stage where out of 14 games even 7 have been 90 minutes draw. Have in mind most of those draws were with price around 4.00. So take a math how huge profit you could make.

Also in the semis both teams have played draws. Italy eventually on penalty roulette has eliminated Spain while England the winning goal against Denmark has scored in the Extra Time after highly questionable penalty. In fact nothing was questionable, the Danish team literally has been robbed. Not to talk about two balls on the field just before situation that resulted in penalty.  

To be honest, no matter England is the host, I doubt referees could be the decisive factor once again. Simply that happened against Denmark but when opponent is such big football nation like Italy, I expect refs to be 50-50. 

So if England wins this, then in my opinion they could do it only if really are better team on the field while I don't think they are. This is 50-50. 

Gareth Southgate seems to found the winning formula long ago and hardly he could change something. That means Jack Grealish again start from the bench which in my opinion is good cause how I see, England is more dangerous with him playing. 

Italy as mentioned last time has remained without important defensive piece Leonardo Spinazzola who suffered injury against Belgium. So I was worried a little bit about their defense given that other two main players Bonucci and Chiellini are too old and could suffer decline when games are in very short period of time. But it didn't happen, they continue to be good while Spinazzola's replacement Emerson was solid too. 

My expected result 0:0. 

WIN Score: 1:1 Profit: +1.97
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