Italy - Spain


International
1X2 / Moneyline
Pick: X Full Time
Odds: 3.22
Stake: 1
Pinnacle

Match date: 06/07/2021

EURO 2020 - First semifinals, Wembley Stadium in London, England

Italy and Spain, two great football nations and two old rivals will decide this evening about first finalist of the EURO 2020. 

It's tough in my opinion to give some advantage to any of these two sides. Maybe, but just maybe Italy holds small edge due to better results on the tournament so far, five games, four wins and one draw. Even that one draw that happened in R16 vs Austria, was eventually converted into Extra Time victory. 

But, I must point out Italy was in easier group where it turned out only serious opponent was the Swiss team, still, even Switzerland was easily defeated cause they only later has started playing much better and showed its full potential in the two knockout rounds.  

Spain basically has won only one game out of five. That was the final round of the group stage against Slovakia. All other matches have been a 90 minutes draws. Against Croatia in R16, 3:3 draw was successfully converted into 5:3 Extra Time win while in the QF against Switzerland, Luis Enrique side beside Extra Time had to go also on penalty roulette and thus finally managed to reach this semifinals.  


Spanish defense did look a bit worrying from time to time. For example that first goal on game vs Croatia was completely amateurish. You never pass the ball back to your goalkeeper unless that's your best or your only solution. Even when you need to, you never do in direction of the goal but always wide. That's the basics that coaches teach you from the early age.  

Beside that ridiculous goal, Spain has allowed two more at the end of the same match, in very short period of time when everything seemed already over. 

Also against Switzerland, the Spanish team has conceded after big defensive mistake when two players had clear situation to clear the ball but they made a blooper.

Still, at least attack is looking more trustworthy now than early on the tournament when they were missing too many chances and when couldn't convert even the penalty kick in both of the first two draws.  

Also I like about Spain their ability to keep the ball and to dominate in possession. That's something Belgium wasn't able to do against Italy the last time. But Belgian team was weakened as expected for absence of Hazard while De Bruyne wasn't fully fit.  

When mentioning game vs Belgium, Italy has suffered big blow there. Namely very important piece of the team, Leonardo Spinazzola got injured and for him EURO is over. This could be now big problem in defense. Bonucci - Chiellini duo is great but who will join them now? Emerson probably. That defense looked much better with Spinazzola there. Not to talk that Chiellini had to go last time without being fully fit and now this game is coming after only three days. 


For Spain Pablo Sarabia who got injured against Switzerland is a doubt and most likely won't be able to play. Dani Olmo is the candidate to take his position in the starting eleven.  


So, both teams have their own concern. Very small things could decide here. As said at the beginning, I can't give some significant edge to anyone. This could easily go to Extra Time. Mancini for me is better coach than Enrique so if we see 120 minutes of football, he might find better solutions and he might make better decisions in the Extra Time.  

Currently 1.79 at Pinnacle for Italy to qualify if someone thinks such odds worth a risk in game of two pretty evenly matched opponents. 

As for me, I'll go with 90 minutes draw.  


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WIN Score: 1:1 Profit: +2.22
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Comments

  • 1
    Maradona 07/07/2021 13:09:06
    Please update my profil with Monthly Competition Winner as well with 100 tips posted. Thanks.
  • 2
    InsideSport 07/07/2021 13:20:07
    Maradona: Please update my profil with Monthly Competition Winner as well with 100 tips posted. Thanks.




    Done.

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