Hamburger SV - Nurnberg


Germany
1X2 / Moneyline
Pick: 1
Odds: 1.66
Stake: 1
Pinnacle

Match date: 10/05/2021

Not my league, but with value in my eyes.

Hamburger SV hurt their fans every season, In facts, Hamburger SV have only lost 1 of their last nine at home(5w 3d 1l), they still have chance if they won all the final three games of the season, the degree of difficulty isn't that big, Nurnberg play for nothing, Osnabrück and Eintracht Braunschweig are at the bottom zone.


What Hamburger needed is confidence, Psychologically speaking, it is the "Wallenda factor".Now, Daniel Thioune was sacked, 70-year-old club legend Horst Hrubesch replaces him, his experience might help the team, and let their confidence back. Hrubesch known his players largely.

The change in mood has definitely succeeded for the time being through the enthronement of the club's idol. After the final training, around 50 fans, Corona-compliant, said goodbye to the professionals when they went into the dressing room with loud "HSV, HSV" calls. A clear sign for Hrubesch: "It was good for the players. The campaign shows what makes HSV so special. It is a sign that HSV is still alive." The next sign of life has to come from the team and the coach, as a victory preserves the minimal chance of the Bundesliga. And the new front man assures: "We still believe in it." 


On the other hand, Nurnberg without some big names, Behrens (20/0), Borkowski (13/3), Nürnberger (29/3), top scorers Lohkemper (11/4) and Schäffler (24/10).

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TIP RESULTING
WIN Score: 5:2 Profit: +0.66
Win
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Comments

  • 1
    InsideSport 12/05/2021 15:14:30
    Hi mate, congrats on the win.

    However, I would like to see you fully focus on Asian leagues, I sense that you can be a real killer there with your knowledge. No need to get involved in Premiership or Bundesliga where it is almost impossible to find real value. Good luck with future tips!
  • 2
    AsianBesTrader 12/05/2021 19:57:51
    InsideSport: Hi mate, congrats on the win.



    However, I would like to see you fully focus on Asian leagues, I sense that you can be a real killer there with your knowledge. No need to get involved in Premiership or Bundesliga where it is almost impossible to find real value. Good luck with future tips!

    hmm...the matchday swings is often <100% margin in EPL and GBL (e.g. 2.03 vs 2.03 on different time slot). Yes the value is harder but definitely is here if u are an analyst in them.

    But well good to know, i gues i am about to quit here as our philosophy differs here
  • 3
    AsianBesTrader 12/05/2021 20:13:34
    InsideSport: Hi mate, congrats on the win.



    However, I would like to see you fully focus on Asian leagues, I sense that you can be a real killer there with your knowledge. No need to get involved in Premiership or Bundesliga where it is almost impossible to find real value. Good luck with future tips!

    e.g. https://t.ly/nuEB
    this is my bet. 2 days before KO it was still 1.25ball AH
    would u say big leagues not value? plenty of schedule issue, rotations, injuries, change in momentum factors if u know what is happening. if you got a proper possion/dixon-cole model.
    The reason why value are there, coz even small syndicates BET ON MATCHDAY MAINLY now. The prematchday limits are too small for syndicates.
  • 4
    InsideSport 13/05/2021 13:45:06
    @asianbes Of course it can be found every now and then but in the long run?

    I am really curious to see how you do, I did not know you involve models as well. I think that match news + betting model are very good tools to be successful in any league. So good luck. I will be following your progress as a number of games grow. Rooting for you but we can only be sure that your strategy is good when ROI is at least 3% on these kinds of markets and with a big archive of bets. Fingers crossed!
  • 5
    AsianBesTrader 13/05/2021 22:58:20
    InsideSport: @asianbes Of course it can be found every now and then but in the long run?



    I am really curious to see how you do, I did not know you involve models as well. I think that match news + betting model are very good tools to be successful in any league. So good luck. I will be following your progress as a number of games grow. Rooting for you but we can only be sure that your strategy is good when ROI is at least 3% on these kinds of markets and with a big archive of bets. Fingers crossed!


    well i really didnt expect "you dont expect us to have betting models"...
    predictive dixon and cole are even available for 10eur per month online (no ads here)
    not to mention I was an Asian bookie..

    I noticed u guys in blogabet for your quality. I guess u guys use models as well?
    I have no problem to share my methodology

    https://www.insidesport.com/betting-tips/bayern-vs-monchengladbach/3009

    I have Bayern 1.5 goals better than Gladbach. the Home adv is 0.2. Since Bayern won champion before the game start, I have -0.3 for their motivation. So i have Bayern 1.4 supremacy over Gladbach which converts around -1.25 AH @1.95. So definitely Gladbach was a line value there, and the market agreed with me (went off -1.25@1.90). But yes we were wrong, Bayern is so sick in their mentality which is out of expectation.

    ROI 3% isn't that difficult, (but could be difficult for your 48 hours limit; I dont have data for 48h b4 KO) just need to be bit picky. Sure if i bet every game i cant get 3%.
    My leagues are GBL, GB2 and EPL in Punteam and i am still working for them...guess it means sth?

    and frankly no problem to me financially not to make on the "featured"....just frustration to what i have invested here
  • 6
    AsianBesTrader 13/05/2021 23:03:06

    InsideSport: @asianbes Of course it can be found every now and then but in the long run?



    I am really curious to see how you do, I did not know you involve models as well. I think that match news + betting model are very good tools to be successful in any league. So good luck. I will be following your progress as a number of games grow. Rooting for you but we can only be sure that your strategy is good when ROI is at least 3% on these kinds of markets and with a big archive of bets. Fingers crossed!


    BTW i guess PROVING to u guys i have 3% LT value is MUCH HARDER than actually attaining the 3% value LOL
    coz the % is so low, unlike Nestor, it is so obvious his picks are mostly value

  • 7
    InsideSport 14/05/2021 10:07:41
    I am not here to argue with you every week. As you mentioned before maybe InsideSport is not the place for you. We are trying to create a enjoyable atmosphere here. No need to make every comment in long discussion.
  • 8
    AsianBesTrader 14/05/2021 15:44:23
    InsideSport: I am not here to argue with you every week. As you mentioned before maybe InsideSport is not the place for you. We are trying to create a enjoyable atmosphere here. No need to make every comment in long discussion.

    i was meant to discuss not argue, as u claimed " really curious to see how you do". Well ok, got it

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