Everton vs Crystal Palace


England
Asian Handicap
Pick: Palace +0.5 AH
Odds: 2.1
Stake: 1
Pinnacle

Match date: 05/04/2021


Everton is still in chase of Europa League spot, while Crystal Palace is almost certain to avoid relegation. However, there are still 9 rounds to go, so I believe Palace WILL STILL TRY HARD for 1-2 more rounds. 


In Everton's camp, important midfielder Doucoure is likely out for season, Pickford is not ready for the game, while regular starters Godfrey, Davies are just returning from injuries. They are in 3 consecutive defeats, and the recent performance has been more like a mid-table team than a Europe-qualifying team, with average xG around -0.5 in recent 8 games. James Rodriguez could return to starting but his match sharpness is questionable.

Crystal Palace has an even worse xG record of -0.8 per game recently despite losing only 3 of last 9. There were mainly 2 reasons: they missed Zaha for most of the games, and have gone ultra-defensive whenever they are not trailing. Thus, their results are likely to outperform xG difference in the long term. There are no major injury concern for them. 


My odds 1.97.

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TIP RESULTING
WIN Score: 1:1 Profit: +1.1
Win
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