Crvena zvezda - Partizan Belgrade

1X2 / Moneyline
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.25
Stake: 1

Match date: 07/04/2021

Serbia - Ling Long Super Liga, 30th Round

Two best teams in Serbia will meet each other today in the capital city. On the stadium Rajko Mitic (without presence of the fans), Crvena zvezda welcomes Partizan Belgrade. 

It's a game they call there an eternal derby and this is going to be Chapter 164 of it.  

The 76 years long history and 163 meetings in the league so far shows that Crvena zvezda was a little bit more successful by winning 64 games while Partizan was better 47 times and on 52 occasion it was draw.  

The host was dominant in the League in the recent years and has won the championship title three straight seasons while also in the current 2020/21 campaign they are the leader on the standings with big nine points above its big rival. From that angle Zvezda is probably set deservedly for a favourite but have in mind H2H stats in this recent period of Zvezda's dominance in Serbian football, is in fact heavily on the Partizan's side. Namely, in last exactly five years and 16 mutual meetings between these two great rivals in that period (League + Cup), Crvena zvezda has won on only two occasions. So 2/16, it's pretty embarrassing for someone who is going towards its 4th straight championship title.  

Partizan was better in 6 games of those 16 while even 8 times it was draw which is huge 50% of the times in the mentioned period.  

So it's very clear how huge value was on the Draw option when these two were meeting each other in the recent years. 

If we cut three Cup games and look only on meetings in the league, then we are on amazing 8 draws of 13 games in the last five years.

You can't find anywhere some big derby where the Draw was so profitable like it was here in the mentioned period. And believe it, all these wasn't coincidence.  

Namely, the same as today when Crvena zvezda is with big nine points advantage, also in recent years most of these games were at the time when the championship race was practically over. You need to understand how big rivalry this is and for both means a lot but first of all, it's always important not to lose this game. And exactly the fact that in recent history, non of the teams needed to chase something (in most cases the Championship title was decided), we had so many times Draw as a final outcome.

I strongly believe the same could be this time. Namely do not be fooled that Partizan can go all the way and win the trophy if wins today and thus cut the deficit to only six points. There will be eight more rounds left after this, that's true. But there are no opponents in this league where you could lose the points so easily. 

It's sounds unbelievable but it's true: both, Crvena zvezda as well Partizan are entering today's match on a 17 games long winning streak in the league. And if we add on that few victories for both in the Cup competition, then both are on unbelievable run of 19 or 20 straight victories. 

That being said, the championship race is over here no matter what happens today, so we are again in the above mentioned scenario where both teams will be looking first of all how not to lose the game. 

And believe me, no matter we hear from both squad how they are going for a win, the first aim for both is going to be not to lose. 

The team news Crvena zvezda:

The important defender Nemanja Milunović has recovered, while Gelor Kanga will pass without consequences due to the delay from Africa where he was recently. The head coach Stankovic has decided to forgive him and not to punish him by removing him from the squad. So basically only young Strahinja Eraković, the starter in the previous duel this season (Partizan - Zvezda 1:1), will skipp the derby. By the way exactly Erakovic was responsible for Partizan goal back then cause he has made huge defensive mistake. 

The exorcted starting line-up:

Borjan - Gajić, Milunović, Degenek, Rodić - Sanogo, Nikolić - Gavrić, Ivanić, Katai - Ben.

So basically the host will play without real striker. Diego Falcinelli is not in very good form while one more Italian player Filippo Falco who came as big investment, turn out to be big disappointed. The fans favourite, Milan Pavkov (scored both goals in that famous 2:0 victory over Liverpool), already for a while is not in the first options under coach Dejan Stankovic.

So Zvezda will start with Ben upfront who is not the typical striker. Of course, Katai is dangerous. He is the player who is able to create something by himself. Still, Katai is best team player but was out for a while and since returning, he is not playing exactly as we got used to see him.  

The teams news Partizan:

The head coach of Partizan, Aleksandar Stanojevic also is without major concerns about his squad. It's only on him to choose the starting eleven depending on the tactics as well on the minutes spent on the pitch by some players in the recent period. Namely, all guys are available but should be noted that Sasa Zdjelar had Covid 19 and only from recently was back to the team, so he still wasn't back to his usual position among first eleven and he was entering from the bench. Also, young Filip Stevanovic who is from recently new player of Man City, has missed some period due to injury. He is ok now but the same as Zdjelar, Stevanovic too is now entering from the bench. 

Partizan has great goalkeeper Vladimir Stojkovic who although being veteran and isn't anymore in the Serbian national team, for me is still by far best Serbian goalkeeper. In defense lately Partizan in general was looking great and conceded only three goals in the mentioned 17 games long winning streak. It wasn't only thanks to Stojkovic but also was great young defender Svetozar Markovic who is on loan from Olympiacos and especially pleasant surprise was Vujacic who with great form earned also place in the starting eleven of the national team of Montenegro. Miljkovic is in my opinion the only weak link of Partizan defense. Other than the mentioned players, former Serbian national team member, Obradovic should get the chance rather than Urosevic. 

In the midfield Partizan should be in advantage. Scekic, Jojic are working great together while especially great is Bibras Natho, the captain of the Israeli national team. He is very dangerous when that final pass is in question and we are definitely talking about the player on the level if not above of Zvezda's Aleksandar Katai. Up front, Partizan has Japanese player Takuma Asano whose spead is unbelievable and as a striker member of Hungarian national team, Filip Holender. Partizan has sold during the season amazing striker Umar Sadiq who is now killing it in Almeria but Holender is ok too if you ask me. 

Partizan in my opinion is with more quality in the midfield as well upfront. After all, for Guenean player Seydouba Soumah there isn't currently place in the starting eleven and we know how much he was destroying Crvena zvezda in the past. Fact Soumah is on the bench and is entering in the second half, speak in favour of my claim that Partizan has super strong squad. 

The expected starting eleven:

Stojković - Miljković, S. Marković, Vujačić, Obradović - Šćekić, Jojić - Asano, Natho, Jović - Holender.

Partizan in my opinion holds edge also on the bench cause coach Akeksandar Stanojevic is with lot of experience as well in Partizan when he was in charge first time some ten years ago (always was successful against Crvena zvezda) as well abroad.  

Dejan Stankovic on the other side on the Zvezda's bench is still a rookie and no matter he is one of best Serbian players ever, as a coach he needs much more to learn. 

The bottom line, if this is some Cup game where the victory brings the trophy, I surely would try with Partizan but since it is the league where race is practically over, I feel the Draw is again the most realistic outcome.  

So Partizan from my point of view holds small edge but not enough to pull the trigger this time with bet on them. You should understand it's very difficult to bet against Crvena zvezda in this league with the way how referees treat them. Namely, I already mentioned even 8 draws in last 13 mutual meetings in the league. But have in mind that also in at least half of those draw games, Partizan has deserved to win and was visibly better side but thanks to funny referees decisions Crvena zvezda was able to came out with one point. 

That being said, today's referee is who else than Novak Simovic. He is probably the last one that Partizan would choose. The same guy gave the penalty to Crvena zvezda in the first mutual meeting this season (1:1). Unlike many previous ridiculous refs decisions in favour of Zvezda in these derby games, that penalty was justified but believe me, the same light pull in the Zvezda's box probably wouldn't end up as penalty kick for Partizan.  

In any case, this Simovic referee is another reason why I have opted out of away side and will try with Full Time Draw. 

LOST Score: 1:0 Profit: -1
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  • 1
    Klevis 07/04/2021 13:00:45
    Hi mate, what do you think Partizan +0.5? I was thinking about it all day, but you know better your league. Or maybe under 2.5? Since nobody wants to lose it in first place. 
  • 2
    Maradona 07/04/2021 13:25:52
    Klevis: Hi mate, what do you think Partizan +0.5? I was thinking about it all day, but you know better your league. Or maybe under 2.5? Since nobody wants to lose it in first place. 

    Hi Klevis,

    First of all thanks for stopping by to read my work.
    As for your question, yes, Under seems realistic. I didn't mention in the preview cause t wasn't bet on total but of the mentioned 16 mutual meetings over last five years, amazing 13 times those were Under 2.5 games.
    Still, Pinnacle offers it at barely above 1.70 odds. Not sure if it's worth of risking cause one potentially early goal for any side could push this game to completely opened match.

    As for your +0.5 question. Yes, that would be logical given on fact I expect draw and given on the fact odds dropping on the home team so now you have much higher odds for +0.5 on Partizan than it was initialy.
    Have in mind, the greatest Serbian bookmaker has opened this as Partizan being slight favourite while the current offer is 2.50-3.25-2.90. So, although dropping on the home team, still way higher odds than those 2.10 or in best case 2.20 that you can find in bet365, Pinnacle etc.
    So yes, I would go maybe with Partizan +0.5 to oppose this odds dropping on the home team but simply it's too big value here on straight X, so I'm rather going with that bigger risk.
    Of course it might not cash today or in some other occasion but this is about long run profit and this matchup in recent period was ideal for taking draw bets and thus making profit on the long run.

    Good luck.

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