Cagliari - Milan

Under / Over
Pick: Under 3
Odds: 1.92
Stake: 1

Match date: 18/01/2021
I see good value on Under 3 here. I would give these odds for under 2.75. I don't see more than 3 goals here.

In last 16 matches between both teams only two times we saw more than 3 goals (twice Milan won at home 3:1). 14 of 16 matches with maximum 3 goals. 7 games with three goals and 7 games with less than three goals. Last two matches between both teams at this stadium finished with 2 goals. In previous season Milan won here 2:0. I expecting similar scoreline today.

Both teams are exhausted after fully packed schedule, both teams played in Copa Italia 4 days ago.

I don't trust for Cagliari offensive formation in today's match. Striker Simeone didn't scored or assisted in last 8 matches. Winger Sottil have 2 goals and 1 assist in 17 Serie A matches. Winger Pereiro have empty account after 4 Serie A matches. Only offensive midfielder Pedro looks like dangerous player.

On the other hand Milan today is without their key winger Leao (5 goals and 4 assists in 13 matches), offensive midfielder Calhanoglu (1 goal and 6 assists in 17 matches) and winger Rebic (3 assists and 1 goal in 11 matches). Today will play Hauge (1 goal in 11 matches), Diaz (1 goal and 2 assists in 13 matches), Castillejo (1 goal in 13 matches) and Ibrahimovic - of course he is superb player, but he recovering after injury, its hard to expect top performance immediately from him.

Due to these reasons I see great value on Under 3."
WIN Score: 0:2 Profit: +0.92
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