Brighton - Newcastle

Asian Handicap
Pick: Newcastle +1
Odds: 1.74
Stake: 1

Match date: 20/03/2021

A vital match will be played today at the Amex where the hosts Brighton plays against Newcastle. Both teams struggling this season for survival as they are just 1-2 points  shy of last relegation place, so this match is very important for both teams and is a real "six pointer". 

The reason I am backing up Newcastle here is that I don't think Brighton should be such big favorites as the odds suggests. Yes sure they are more favorite to win this game due to the fact that they play at home and also due to the important missings that Newcastle has in attack, but still I don't think this will be easy for Brighton. I expect a very tight match and I believe both teams will approach this match with increased cautiousness as a defeat for any of the teams could complicate things for them. In this context the first thought of both teams will be not to lose this one, especially for the guests. 

I expect Newcastle to defend deep and to use the counter-attack well with players like Joelinton and Fraser, Willock or Gayle up front who could pose threats to Brighton if Brighton starts to attack and push hard.  As I mentioned, for this match Newcastle again will miss its best players in attack Wilson and Saint-Maximin, but there is hope that Miguel Almiron could be ready for this match. 

Brighton on the other hand enjoying more success lately and are coming to this match after a great win 3-2 away at Southampton and will look to continue to build on that victory. Since the beginning of the year they have made some surprises beating teams like Tottenham or Liverpool, but today it will be a different match with totally different opponent. They also have missings for this match like Lamptey, March, Webster and Connolly. 

To sum up, the biggest reason why I am taking this bet is the fact that I don't see Brighton such a big favorite for this match. Yes, they have a bit more for the win, but it will be very hard and complicated match and neither team is expected to have an easy task. Even if Brighton wins I don't think it will be by more than one goal, but I can see Newcastle also capable to take something from this match. Soo my bet is Newcastle +1. 

LOST Score: 3:0 Profit: -1
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