Atletico Madrid - Chelsea


UEFA Champions League
Asian Handicap
Pick: Atletico (-0.25)
Odds: 2.6
Stake: 1
Pinnacle

Match date: 23/02/2021

Atletico hosts Chelsea tonight in the first leg of the 1/16 finals of Champions League and this match is played in Romania due to Covid restrictions. Although they don’t play in Madrid, I belive the odds are a bit too high on Atletico. My initial thought was to take Atletico (0), but I feel to back Atletico with (-0.25) with such great odds. I am favouring Atletico here because they are very experienced team in this competition and their form during the season has been very good. 


Regarding the experience of Atletico in this competition it should be mentioned that they have reached the last eight or better in five of their last seven campaigns and also they have reached two Champions League and three Europa League finals in the last 11 seasons which is a remarkable achievement.


So as you can see the experience that Atletico has in such matches is very big. Moreover Atletico has performed very well against English teams having been victorious in nine of their 11 two-legged knockout contests.


Regarding the actual form, it is true that lately they dropped some points in domestic league and they have actually won only one of their last four matches which has led Real to close the gap to only three points. They are coming to this match after a shock defeat against Levante and the pressure should be felt now on Atletico and I expect them to take every match very seriously and try to avoid droping more points in matches like that against Levante or Celta. So tonight in this important match I expect a motivated and focused team.

 

On the other hand Chelsea is coming to this match after a great run under the new coach Tuchel. Tuchel has managed to turn things around and recent results show his immediate impact he had on the team. Since Tuhel arrived Chelsea have registered five wins in row and were only halted by Southampton this weekend in a 1-1 draw.


The team has surely improved overall, especially their defense which under Tuchelthey have conceded just two goals in their last seven games. I expect them to be fully motivated for this match and will surely want to demonstrate that they belong here, and coach Tuchel has the experience to face such opponents in this stage. 


For this match Atletico will miss an important piece of the team, the defender Jose Maria Gimenez who came off injured from last match. Another missing player will be Carrasco and long time injured Herrera and suspended Tripier. For Chelsea only Silva will miss. 


To sum up I expect this to be a very tight and difficult to predict game, but as I mentioned above I really do believe that Atletico’s experience in this kind of games will make the difference. 


Having in consideration the good form of Chelsea, it would be wise to take the (0) on Atletico, which also pays good and limits our risks, but I am willing to risk a bit more for such great odds.

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TIP RESULTING
LOST Score: 0:1 Profit: -1
Lost
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