Argentina - Brazil

1X2 / Moneyline
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.16
Stake: 1

Match date: 11/07/2021

Copa América » Final match

Venue: Maracana stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Pretty much expected finals. Two by far best South American teams will play for the trophy. Brazil for their 10th while Argentina for 15th. So Argentina was more successful team in this competition overall but the last time they have won almost three decades ago while Brazil is the defending champion. 

Still all those stats are not much important now except the fact this is probably one of last chances for Messi to win the trophy he never won before.  

Both teams more or less easily topped their group during the first stage. Then in the knockout Brazil had two narrow 1:0 victories over Chile and Peru while Argentina after 3:0 win over Ecuador has needed penalty roulette to eliminate Colombia (1:1 in regulation) in a game where they absolutely deserved to finish the job much before penalty drama.  

Now in the big finals when I see the offered odds, I must say I think Brazil is a little bit overrated. I just don't think 2.15 odds (1x2) are good enough for any team in this matchup unless we have 

1) one of the teams clearly under performs

2) one of the teams with many absent players or

3) there is significant advantage in the term of home field. 

Now, I don't see any of the above cause 

1) both teams have been very good on this tournament 

2) Argentina is not having problems with the squad but in fact Brazil is the team who has one important player unavailable for this game

3) this is only slight home field advantage for Brazil given on fact the tournament is going on without presence of the fans. 

So, if we are talking about value then surely it's on the Argentinian side. But I don't see the point in going with Argentina in Draw No Bet when I don't expect them to win. On the other side Argentina +0.5 is worth to think about but instead of odds around 1.80 for such bet, I'm going with real value and that's on Full Time Draw.  

Much safer is the first half draw and I took that bet too (split one unit on these two bets). 

Team news:

As mentioned above, Argentina is without any problem about its squad while Brazil is without only one player. That's Gabriel Jesus, who was suspended on two games after earning a red card in the QF game vs Chile.  

Most likely starting lineups:


Ederson, Danilo, Marquinhos, Silva, Sandro, Fred, Casemiro, Richarlison, Paqueta, Everton, Neymar.


E Martinez, Molina, Pezzella, Otamendi, Tagliafico, De Paul, Paredes, Lo Celso, Messi, L Martinez, Gomez.

LOST Score: 1:0 Profit: -1
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  • 2
    Shuaib Yunus Hassan 11/07/2021 12:19:21
    I think Balon Dor would now be given to him. I do not think if there is someone who can compete him. Lewandowski failed to shine in the Euro

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