Berwick vs Edinburgh City LOST 2:2
29/12/2018Berwick vs Edinburgh City (Scotland League Two)
Hosts are in deep crisis, they are lucky to have Albion Rovers on the bottom with only 5 points. Berwick conceded nine goals in previous two matches (0:4 vs Annan; 0:5 vs Peterhead) and has been showing a very low level of football quality in this period. The team will again miss topscorer Willis(13/5) alongside with defender Healy(14/2) and midfielder Murphy(4/0). After the main goal-scoring power got injured three rounds ago, Berwick totally collapsed. Edinburgh is the leader of the division and is a stable team, with constancy and with a clear ambition for promotion. 7 wins in 8 away games shows that Edinburgh is a big favorite today, especially if we compare 8 conceded goals for Edinburgh and 41 of Berwick until now!
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By the way, it's not that I choose Draw so often. In that case it wouldn't be profitable. I'm making strict selection and every pick even if it's a draw with odds 3.50+, is only when I'm highly confident.
Just for the record in the last three months I had:
August 13 bets, only 2 were Draws and both correct.
September 28 bets, only 4 were draws, 3 of 4 correct.
October 17 bets so far, only 4 draws and 3 of 4 correct.
In total over last three months:
58 bets and only 10 times it was Draw choice. So basically in average once out of six bets I have the draw bet.
But my hitting ratio on draws is extremely high. I have won 8 of the 10 in the mentioned period of the last three months. That's pretty damn good even if you would pick 1.50 odds.
Of course on the super long run it's not 80% of the time I'm correct but I'm easily hitting 40+ % of my draw picks. So everyone can take a math.
Obviously I'm doing this correctly. 25+ years of betting behind me including 6 years as a bookie and those 6 years in terms of experience and chance to learn and improve, worth I would say like 600 years of being only bettor.